senor honda

senor honda

THE MAIN FEATUREIf Rossi is going to overtake Dixon’s 29-point advantage and wrest the title from the Kiwi’s hands, he’ll need to bank on going like hell and getting to the front. Rather than try and work out the million different scenarios that are possible, we’ll stick with the more realistic situations to follow and only mention how one, two, three, or four bonus points could change the outcome when it’s warranted. If Rossi wins, Dixon needs to finish second to earn the championship (Rossi P1=669, Dixon P2=678, Dixon+9).

If Rossi wins and Dixon finishes third, Rossi is champion if Dixon does not have a healthy serving of bonus points (Rossi P1=669, Dixon P3=668,Rossi+1).

For the sake of comfort, a Rossi win and fourth for Dixon (Rossi P1=669, Dixon P4=662, Rossi+7) would remove bonus points from the equation.

If Rossi finishes second, Dixon only needs to finish sixth to win (Rossi P2=649, Dixon P6=654, Dixon+5).



Dixon could still win if he was seventh (Rossi P2=649, Dixon P7=650, Dixon+1), but it opens up a possible swing in Rossi’s favor if the Andretti driver has a few bonus points.If Rossi takes second and Dixon is eighth, we still have a situation where bonus points for Dixon could trump Rossi’s finishing position (Rossi P2=649, Dixon P8=646, Rossi+3).The only clear path to a championship for Rossi if he fails to win and takes a runner-up finish is to have Dixon cross the line in ninth (Rossi P2=649,Dixon P9=642, Rossi+7) where maximum bonus points for Dixon would be meaningless.It paints an interesting scenario. If we pretend the Penske drivers do not exist and the team does not have a 75-percent win rate at Sonoma this decade, Rossi will need to win and hope Dixon is no better than fourth at the checkered flag.If the 100 points for the win goes to anyone other than Rossi, he cannot afford to place lower than second, and even in that instance, Dixon won’t be forced to deliver fireworks to capture a fifth title. The worst scenario for Rossi is to have the Penske drivers, or strong rivals from another team take first or second. Simply put, if Rossi’s chasing one or two drivers home on Sunday, Dixon can have an average run – average for him, at least – and still earn the IndyCar crown.Rossi’s perfect day involves finishing first or second and forcing Dixon to push like a crazed animal until the final lap. Minus huge pressure to place second or third, Dixon has all kinds of options to work with. If Rossi finishes third, Dixon only needs to finish eighth (Rossi P3=639,Dixon P8=646, Dixon+7) to render the bonus point conversation moot. Dixon can still win with ninth (Rossi P3=639, Dixon P9=642, Dixon+3) provided Rossi doesn’t have all four bonus points.

For Rossi to breathe easy in third and strip bonus points from the mix, he’ll actually need Dixon to finish 12th (Rossi P3=639, Dixon P12=634, Rossi+5), which is asking for a lot of cartoon anvils to intervene on his behalf.

What’s the takeaway? Rossi doesn’t want to finish third or lower.

And if Rossi finishes fourth, plus wants to ignore the ramifications of bonus points, he’ll need Dixon to fall all the way to 15th or worse if he intends to be our next champion (Rossi P4=633, Dixon P15=628, Rossi+5).



On the flipside, if Rossi’s fourth and Dixon’s at least 10th, Rossi loses, period (Rossi P4=633, Dixon P10=638, Dixon+5). Barring something truly unexpected happening, how many people would bet on Dixon missing out on the top 10?

If Rossi’s fifth, Dixon would need to be 17th to have no hope of earning the championship. Those are long odds.Drawing back to the earlier point, only a win or possibly a second place by Rossi will turn up the heat on Dixon. Once we abandon a top two finish, a wily veteran like Dixon and his well-drilled No. 9 team can avoid taking undue risks and be rewarded with the title.

ABSTRACTSIf Sonoma starts off with a Portland-like accident and the racing gods aren’t smiling on Dixon in the same way they were in Oregon, a parked Ganassi Honda would certainly improve the championship odds for Rossi. But it wouldn’t be a guarantee for the Andretti man.Provided he takes the start, Dixon will have a minimum amount of 608 points if he ends up 25th or 26th in the race. Remarkably, for Rossi to become champion on Dixon’s all-time worst outing at Sonoma, he’d have to finish ninth to keep bonus points from being used against him (Rossi P9=613, Dixon P25/26=608, Rossi+5).Dixon’s 29-point lead might look small with 100 points up for grabs, but with the heavy payout limited to finishing up front, a bad day for Dixon is far from instant gratification for Rossi. It further proves that when we get down to business Sunday afternoon, drama will need to visit Dixon in some shape or form to keep Rossi and the Penske boys in title contention.

And if we imagine the race with Dixon out early and only Rossi, Power, and Newgarden left to play, the Penske duo are still facing an uphill battle to keep the championship in The Captain’s camp.On that front, Power or Newgarden could win and Rossi would be crowned, without bonus point considerations, by ambling home in eighth (Power/Newgarden P1=611, Rossi P8=617, Rossi+6).Stepping into the absurd, if Dixon and Rossi drop out early, Power or Newgarden still need to win. If they finish second, Dixon, with his 608 points for finishing last, would beat the Penske drivers and their 591 points that come with second. Yes: If Rossi and Dixon are parked, Dixon is still champion from P26 if Power or Newgarden finish P2!



YOUR MISSIONIf you’re a Scott Dixon fan, he’ll need to race hard if Rossi’s up front, but other than that, the path to a fifth title gets easier if his main rival is anything but dominant. The better the Penske drivers perform, the better it is for Dixon. In a rare twist, Chip Ganassi might actually be rooting for Roger’s drivers if his guy isn’t capable of taking the win.If you’re an Alexander Rossi fan, you’re hoping the Penske drivers struggle and leave the biggest portion of points on the table for his taking. And you’re also hoping Dixon’s team misses the chassis setup just enough to get mired in a pack of midfield runners. But if the Penskes are strong and Dixon’s being Dixon, there might not be much Rossi can do to overcome the points deficit.And if you’re a Will Power or Josef Newgarden fan, sacrifice a couple of old Verizon flip phones to the racing gods and say 10 Hail Rogers. They’ll need it.