Part 3 Tire planning



Prior to the first round of pit stops, Palou kept things close, sat just over a second back from McLaughlin, was able to go a few more laps than McLaughlin before pitting, and was markedly faster on those extra laps. Then, on the first few laps after emerging from the pits, Palou was faster still as his closest pursuers slowed themselves while their battles for second and third raged on.
The running order on lap 50 was Palou, Ericsson, and McLaughlin. On that lap, while all three were on used alternates, it remained tight as Palou turned a 1m03.6s while the other two clocked 1m03.8s. And then the effects of Palou’s tidy-clean-efficient driving started to stand out as the trio put more miles on their used alternates.

On lap 54, for example, Palou was flying with a 1m03.0s tour; Ericsson could only muster a 1m03.8s and McLaughlin was at a 1m04.0s even, losing between 0.8s and 1.0s on that lap alone.

Palou’s consistently unmatchable pace in this stanza is where the race was won. His laps 58 and 59 were nearly identical at 1m03.1937s and 1m03.1926s. Ericsson, in second place, turned a 1m03.7361s and a 1m04.0041s for a combined loss of 1.3539s to Palou in just two laps.

Back on lap 50, when the Palou and his closest pursuers ran almost the same lap time on relatively fresh used alternates, his lead over Ericsson was 1.6s and McLaughlin was down by 3.8s. But as their tires reached and went past the mid-point of the stint – as their usability was about to meet an abrupt end – Palou struck with control and precision and consistency.

What was a 1.6s lead on lap 50 became 7.0s on pure speed by lap 60, and making that extra speed without abusing his tires. Palou kept going until lap 67, and by that point, McLaughlin had overtaken Ericsson, who was struggling to keep his used alternates alive, and it cost everyone chasing Palou – including McLaughlin – a ton of time as they got bottled up behind the Andretti driver.
By the time McLaughlin got by Ericsson, Palou had disappeared – thanks to his pace and the slowing effect Ericsson had on the field – to the tune of 13.8 second on lap 66. Credit Palou for the advantage he amassed, but don’t discount Ericsson’s effect on amplifying that lead by holding and fading in second place while keeping faster cars in third and fourth place at bay for so long.

With their final pit stops beckoning, Palou took used primes on lap 67 and McLaughlin went in for his candy – the new alternates – to start the fightback on lap 68.

Every other driver who finished inside the top eight at St. Pete had two new sets of tires, at a minimum, and some had three sets of new tires – optimum rubber from start to finish.
One race into the season, and it already feels like Palou's rivals are on the clock to reel him in. David Jensen/Getty Images

Andretti’s Kyle Kirkwood, on a two-stop strategy as well – but aided by having two sets of new alternates after starting 15th– charged his way to second by lap 77.

Kirkwood did as expected by using his new alternates to slice into Palou’s lead on old primes, and by lap 80, the once-gaudy lead of 13.8s on lap 66 was carved down to 5.5s. With the respective difference of tire grip in mind, and the per-lap time loss he was suffering, Palou wasn’t going to match Kirkwood’s pace. Finally, he was at risk of being overtaken for the lead.

Lap 70 was a perfect indicator of their performance disparity, as the checkered flag awaited everyone on lap 100. Both were just starting their final stints, and with those new alternates giving him an edge, Kirkwood’s lap 70 was 0.8102s quicker than Palou's. Holding the upper hand, Kirkwood did as expected and put his compound and tire age advantage to good use while attacking Palou’s lead. But it didn’t last.
Palou started equaling or beating Kirkwood’s times between laps 80-90 as the Andretti driver’s car lost its balance and started to burn through its alternates. By lap 90, Palou stopped the losses with more of the control, precision, and consistency, and expanded the lead to 6.9s over Kirkwood and 7.9s over McLaughlin, who was preparing to pounce and take second place.

But before that happened, Kirkwood continued to slow. He lost nearly a second per lap to Palou from laps 90-93, which also meant McLaughlin’s distance to Palou was growing as well, and by the time he got around Kirkwood, Palou was gone. It happened to McLaughlin earlier in the race with Ericsson, and again to finish the race with Ericsson’s Andretti teammate, which made it easier for Palou to punch out to double-digit leads.

McLaughlin’s hard-charging efforts to get by Kirkwood also came at a cost to the capabilities of his once-new alternates.

From lap 94 when McLaughlin took second, he was 1.5s slower than Palou on the same lap, 0.4s slower on lap 95, 0.6s slower on lap 96, 0.2s down on lap 97, and 0.6s slower on lap 98. Despite being saddled with used primes, Palou took great care of his tires and had speed left to burn in the waning moments of the race. Over the last two laps – with a monster lead – Palou eased off, running laps at 1m05s while McLaughlin kept hammering away with 1m04s.

At the checkered flag, Palou’s margin of victory over the Team Penske ace was 12.5 seconds.

Palou’s magic was only made fully apparent during the post-race analysis. His opening stint on new alternates lasted 38 laps and his quickest lap of the day was on lap 37, which spoke to how well he cared for the delicate compound.
McLaughlin’s closing stint on new alternates was only 32 laps long, and with Kirkwood out of the way, his last batch of laps on those tires ranged from 1m03.8s to 1m04.4s. Palou, at the end of his beginning stint new alternates, was faster from laps 32-37, reeling off low 1m03s and that 1m02.8s best.

Kirkwood actually posted the fastest lap of the race on his new alternates with a 1m02.2s tour, which was 0.6s better than Palou's, and suggests Palou knew he had more speed in his new alternates, but elected to dial back just a tad to preserve their per-lap capabilities as he stretched that first stint out to lap 38.

And with his formidable lead shrinking fast in the final stint, Palou embraced the same control-precision-consistency mantra and didn’t overact by trying to nullify Kirkwood’s tire and speed advantage from the moment they left the pits.

He and his team knew they’d lose the early battle between old primes and new alternates, and weren’t rattled when a 13.8s lead dwindled to 5.5s. As those new alternates lost their peak on the cars of Kirkwood and McLaughlin, Palou had enough speed held in reserve to regain most of what was temporarily lost and captured the 20th victory of his career while McLaughlin was nowhere to be found at the finish line, 12.5s arrears.