The wind field is expanding... but fortuntely they're predicting it will be a Cat 2 or so around FL landfall. Its still meandering around Mexico right now (I'm sure they're enjoying it moving at 5mph with those high winds).

Once it gets picked up by the front, I'm pretty sure they'll know exactly where its gonna make landfall, because at that point it becomes a game of "follow the trough" on the water vapour images.