Got some bad news on the car today. I took it over to Stuart at Just Miata in St Pete to have a timing belt and clutch done, and it turns out there's something pretty seriously wrong with the timing belt pulley/crank nose area. Apparently the keyway is pretty badly worn. Worn enough that there's play on both sides of the key - enough that it would affect the timing and possibly "Cause a very bad situation" in Stu's words... So it needs a new crank.
It's something I couldn't really see when I bought the car. I knew the crank pulley was wobbling a little, but without tearing it off there was no way to tell why. So I gambled and lost.
On the bright side, the car was only $2500, and some of the labor from the other work I was gonna have done anyway will overlap, so it's not going to cost me THAT much more. But still... The shop is pretty backed up, so the car probably won't be ready for Brooksville on 3/13.